Warsaw Summit Experts' Forum
Nato in defence of peace: 2016 and beyond
WELCOMING SPEECH FOR CONFERENCE PARTICIPANTS
OFFICIAL WELCOME AND INTRODUCTORY REMARKSH.E. Mr. Andrzej Duda, President of the Republic of Poland (confirmed)
H.E. Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO (confirmed)
KEYNOTE: A STRATEGIC TAKE ON THE FUTURE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALLIANCE
The Hon. Madeleine Albright, Honorary Director, The Atlantic Council of the United States (confirmed)
ADAPTING TO PRESERVE THE PEACE
H.E. Mr. Witold Waszczykowski, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland (confirmed)
PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH
IN PARTNERSHIP WITH CSIS
The panel will focus on the modernisation of defence and deterrence as well as U.S. Army force posture in Europe amid heightened tensions over the political and development orientation of Ukraine. It will review Russian military capabilities; consider alternative U.S. force-posture arrangements and whether the European allies can afford to bridge the gap, first with political commitments and then with real military contributions to common deterrence; assess how to determine whether assurance and deterrence goals are being met; and offer concrete recommendations in order to optimise the U.S. Army’s presence in Europe to deter Russian aggression against the most vulnerable NATO members.
PRESERVING PEACE: NATO’S ROLE
For over six decades, NATO has been playing a key role in preserving peace in Europe. After World War II, the strength and solidarity of the Alliance protected free European nations from another disastrous conflict. After the fall of the Iron Curtain, NATO moved to project stability in its neighbourhood and beyond through enlargement and partnership policies and crisis-management operations. Today, the Alliance faces an array of threats and challenges that is more complex than ever before. At the same time, allies differ in their threat perceptions, gaps persist in military capabilities, and public support for NATO is not certain. In Warsaw, 28 member states must present a shared vision of the Alliance in order to keep it strong, united and credible. What should be NATO’s priorities and position in the European and global security environment? What is the value of the Alliance beyond its military dimension? How can NATO’s relevance among its member states’ citizens be ensured?
TO THE LEADERS IN THE ROOM: HOW DOES NATO WIN BACK PUBLIC SUPPORT?
Are we losing the fight against nationalism? Polling and recent election results suggest that the electorates of NATO nations are growing skeptical of the established political leaders, experts, and institutions that champion an internationalist approach to problem solving. Voters are increasingly challenging multilateral policies, and questioning the future of the European project, the value of the transatlantic alliance, the investments required to sustain them, and the underlying assumption that international cooperation is a good thing for everyone. NATO is not immune to these trends. An alliance of democracies can only remain strong and credible if it retains the support of its peoples. This is not a challenge we should take lightly.
OPENING OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL – LIVE STREAMING
SUSTAINING PEACE ON NATO’S EASTERN FLANK
IN PARTNERSHIP WITH ATLANTIC COUNCIL
PRESERVING PEACE: NATO’S ROLE
DEPARTURE TO THE HOTEL (PLEASE NOTE THE TIME OF DEPARTURE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE)
NIGHT OWL SESSION 1: ADJUSTING NATO’S NUCLEAR DETERRENCE TO THE NEW REALITY (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)
NATO has significantly reduced the presence of nuclear weapons in Europe over the past two decades.
Although the Alliance has continued to rely on nuclear deterrence, the role these weapons play has
diminished and it has been adapted to the new security environment. At the same time, Russia has
taken a completely different approach. Its nuclear doctrine and use of explicit threats, which it
used to facilitate aggression against Ukraine, have led to questions about whether NATO’s nuclear
policy and posture is adequate. While NATO has been adjusting to the new nuclear landscape in Europe,
the Warsaw Summit provides an opportunity to agree further steps at the highest political levels.
What are the main challenges to NATO posed by Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship? What steps should NATO
as a “Nuclear Alliance” take to adjust its nuclear policy and posture to new realities? How can it
reconcile the deterrence and assurance needs with NATO’s goal to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons
in the European security environment, and with the need for maintaining cohesion?
NIGHT OWL SESSION 2: FIGHTING TERROR: REFORMING EUROPE’S INTELLIGENCE INFRASTRUCTURE (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)
The integrity of Europe’s security architecture is at risk. Terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, as well as other ongoing terrorist alerts across the continent, have exposed major loopholes in this architecture. More specifically, they have challenged the ability of European intelligence agencies to effectively collect, analyse and disseminate data on what appears to be a robust and well organised terrorist network operating across Europe. Although terrorism is not new to the old continent, the recent surge in such threats across Europe clearly shows that European countries are in need of adopting a new counterterrorism strategy. Twentieth century means, technology and structures are insufficient when it comes to effectively countering this phenomenon. What tactical and operational improvements must Europe adopt in order to impede another major terrorist attack? How do we improve intelligence collection and sharing in an environment where there is lack of trust and intelligence cultures differ significantly? Do we need to set up a pan-European spy agency to fight terrorism? Or should we build and coordinate European capabilities from bottom-up? What can Europe learn from other counterterrorism models around the world and where is the line between security and privacy in this new age of terror?
NIGHT OWL SESSION 3: CYBERSECURITY: STILL UNDERESTIMATED? (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)
The gravity of the threat posed by cyberattack was clearly in evidence after the 2014 Wales Summit
when NATO recognized that cyberdefence is part of its core task of collective defence. The Alliance
has further enhanced protection of its own systems and increased support for the efforts of its members.
Since cyberspace has various interdependencies, cooperation with partners has also been strengthened,
including with the private sector, nations and international organisations. But as cyberthreats evolve,
so must NATO’s approach. What are the main accomplishments and challenges of NATO cyberdefence policy?
Should the Alliance do more to support and assist its members? Can deterrence be effective in cyberspace?
Does the Alliance need to include cyberoffense measures in its policy? In which areas should NATO
collaborate closer with the private sector and other partners, such as the EU?
NIGHT OWL SESSION 4: SPEED UP MODERNISATION: VISEGRAD GROUP CONTRIBUTIONS TO NATO’S CAPABILITIES (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)
The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia are determined to contribute to common
security through closer regional cooperation. The most visible example of this determination
is the Visegrad Battle Group, which has been on standby in the first half of 2016 and may be used
to organise other capabilities in the future. The four countries also cooperate closely in implementing
the Readiness Action Plan approved by NATO during the 2014 Wales Summit, but there is untapped
potential in defence industrial cooperation and its development could speed up modernisation of
the armed forces. Will the changed security environment in Europe move cooperation within the Visegrad
Group to a higher level? What capabilities can the V4 countries develop together?
NIGHT OWL SESSION 5: ARE WE GIVING UP ON THE INFORMATION FRONT? (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)
Faced with a centralised, well-funded propaganda machine, the West has so far failed to
respond effectively to the information war stemming from both Russia and Daesh. Promoting
conspiracy theories has been a particularly persuasive weapon to exploit and foster national
passivity in the entire region. How should the West and particularly NATO counter this hybrid
warfare-type information offensive and attacks on the founding principle of democracy? What
steps should the West take not only to resist propaganda and fraudulent news but also to
actively restore belief in transatlantic values, freedom and truth?
IS PEACE POSSIBLE? STRATEGY FOR A CHAOTIC SOUTHERN FLANK
IN PARTNERSHIP WITH GMF
PRESERVING PEACE BY FOSTERING FREEDOM, JUSTICE AND SECURITY TO THE WIDER WORLD
As a political-military organisation, NATO has tried from the onset to contribute to broader
international stability. With collective defence as the bedrock of the Alliance, NATO also
possesses significant capacity to spread freedom, justice and security to the wider world.
It has developed unique capabilities to undertake crisis-response missions. It offers hundreds
of different forms of practical cooperation to partners, broadening the space for cooperative
security. Through its open-door policy and the perspective of membership, NATO has proved
successful in promoting democratic reforms and stability across Central and Eastern Europe.
However, with the new security environment in Europe, NATO will need to readjust its tools
for promoting stability, especially in the post-Soviet space. Is it possible to stimulate
democratic reforms in Georgia and Ukraine without a viable membership perspective? What is
the best support the West can provide both countries?
A STRONG AND COHERENT NATO
Speech: H.E. Mr. Antoni Macierewicz, Minister of National Defence of the Republic of Poland (confirmed)
PRESERVING PEACE IN EUROPE AND/OR MAKING PEACE WITH RUSSIA?
NATO-Russia relations developed on the assumption that Russia was a NATO partner and
that both players wanted to form an area of cooperative security and had common
interests in strengthening international stability. Cooperation also served as a
means to enhance predictability and trust. After the annexation of Crimea, NATO
suspended cooperation with Russia. What kind of relations between NATO and Russia
can best serve the interests of the Alliance given the new security situation?
What risks and opportunities would come with pragmatic cooperation in areas where
both players do not have conflicting geopolitical interests? Is it viable that
the two will join forces in the Middle East to defeat ISIS?
IS THERE MOMENTUM FOR PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN?
U.S., NATO and the wider international community paid in blood and treasure for
more than 15 years to try to bring stability to Afghanistan. The Taliban were
removed from power and Al-Qaeda was decimated. But despite significant investment
and international support for reform, the foundations of the country remain weak.
Afghanistan is threatened by internal power struggles, a Taliban insurgency and the
silent expansion of ISIS. While the government struggles to keep its territory under
control, the country is dependent on international aid and NATO and its Western allies
have pulled the majority of their troops and reduced financial support. With such
trends expected to continue, the future of Afghanistan remains bleak. What does this
mean for NATO’s Resolute Support? Should the Alliance be ready to take a more active
role in Afghanistan again? Is it instead up to Afghans to bring stability through
more effective reform and its fight with corruption? Is Afghanistan ready to
cope with the challenges alone?
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? NATO AFTER WARSAW
The security environment has deteriorated considerably and the NATO Warsaw Summit will
be a milestone in the adaptation process. NATO needs to rebuild its deterrence and defence
capabilities in order to respond to an increasingly antagonistic Russia and the challenges
coming from the South. The list of threats is long and includes cyberattacks, an ongoing
information war, a lack of public support and underfunding. What will the NATO Summit’s key
outcome be? What will Alliance’s forward presence be like? Do we need to rethink NATO’s
Strategic Concept (NSC) and Deterrence and Defence Posture Review (DDPR)?
Should the Nuclear Strategy be updated?
Mr. Róbert Vass, President, GLOBSEC
DEPARTURE FOR THE RECEPTION
NATO FAMILY BARBECUE (by invitation only)
NATO FAMILY DISCO PARTY (by invitation only)