Warsaw Summit Experts' Forum

Nato in defence of peace: 2016 and beyond

  • facebook
  • twitter
  • gogole+
Program
Thursday, 7 July 2016
VENUE: Hotel Double Tree by hilton (Media representatives – accreditation required prus@pism.pl, mackowski@pism.pl)
16:00–18:00

WELCOMING COCKTAIL

WELCOMING SPEECH FOR CONFERENCE PARTICIPANTS
H.E. Mr. Antoni Macierewicz, Minister of National Defence of the Republic of Poland (confirmed)

Friday, 8 July 2016
VENUE: National stadium area
(MEDIA representatives are requested to arrive at the venue before 8:30)
9:00–9:45

OFFICIAL WELCOME AND INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

H.E. Mr. Andrzej Duda, President of the Republic of Poland (confirmed)
H.E. Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO (confirmed)
Introduced by:   Dr. Sławomir Dębski, Director, Polish Institute of International Affairs (confirmed)
Amb. Rastislav Káčer, Honorary Chairman, GLOBSEC (confirmed)
9:45–10:15

COFFE BREAK

10:15–10:45

KEYNOTE: A STRATEGIC TAKE ON THE FUTURE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALLIANCE

The Hon. Madeleine Albright, Honorary Director, The Atlantic Council of the United States (confirmed)

10:45–11:00

ADAPTING TO PRESERVE THE PEACE

H.E. Mr. Witold Waszczykowski, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland (confirmed)

11:00–12:30

PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH CSIS

The panel will focus on the modernisation of defence and deterrence as well as U.S. Army force posture in Europe amid heightened tensions over the political and development orientation of Ukraine. It will review Russian military capabilities; consider alternative U.S. force-posture arrangements and whether the European allies can afford to bridge the gap, first with political commitments and then with real military contributions to common deterrence; assess how to determine whether assurance and deterrence goals are being met; and offer concrete recommendations in order to optimise the U.S. Army’s presence in Europe to deter Russian aggression against the most vulnerable NATO members.


Speaker 1:   Gen. Petr Pavel, Chairman, NATO Military Committee (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   The Hon. James J. Townsend, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for European and NATO Policy, U.S. Department of Defence (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Dr. Heather Conley, Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia and the Arctic, Center for Strategic and International Studies (confirmed)
Speaker 4:   The Hon. Jüri Luik, Director, Centre for Defence and Security (confirmed)
Led by:   Dr. Jeff Rathke, Deputy Director, Europe Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies (confirmed)
12:30–13:45

LUNCH

13:45–14:35

PRESERVING PEACE: NATO’S ROLE

For over six decades, NATO has been playing a key role in preserving peace in Europe. After World War II, the strength and solidarity of the Alliance protected free European nations from another disastrous conflict. After the fall of the Iron Curtain, NATO moved to project stability in its neighbourhood and beyond through enlargement and partnership policies and crisis-management operations. Today, the Alliance faces an array of threats and challenges that is more complex than ever before. At the same time, allies differ in their threat perceptions, gaps persist in military capabilities, and public support for NATO is not certain. In Warsaw, 28 member states must present a shared vision of the Alliance in order to keep it strong, united and credible. What should be NATO’s priorities and position in the European and global security environment? What is the value of the Alliance beyond its military dimension? How can NATO’s relevance among its member states’ citizens be ensured?


STATEMENTS BY HEADS OF STATE AND/OR PANEL DISCUSSION OF FUTURE NATO LEADERS

Statement:   H.E. Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, President of the Republic of Croatia (confirmed)
Statement:   H.E. Raimonds Vējonis, President of the Republic of Latvia (confirmed)
Statement:   H.E. Milo Đukanović, Prime Minister of the Republic of Montenegro (confirmed)

14:35–15:30

TO THE LEADERS IN THE ROOM: HOW DOES NATO WIN BACK PUBLIC SUPPORT?

Are we losing the fight against nationalism? Polling and recent election results suggest that the electorates of NATO nations are growing skeptical of the established political leaders, experts, and institutions that champion an internationalist approach to problem solving. Voters are increasingly challenging multilateral policies, and questioning the future of the European project, the value of the transatlantic alliance, the investments required to sustain them, and the underlying assumption that international cooperation is a good thing for everyone. NATO is not immune to these trends. An alliance of democracies can only remain strong and credible if it retains the support of its peoples. This is not a challenge we should take lightly.
As internationally-connected leaders in our own communities, how do we make the case to our publics for why we invest in allies thousands of miles away who may look, speak, and think differently than ourselves, especially when concerns closer to home seem to suggest that our commitment to NATO is misguided? How do we activate the full support and capabilities of our populations to continue advancing internationalism, so that the NATO community can continue to be the prime mover and shaper of globalization?

Speaker 1:  The Hon. Madeleine Albright, Honorary Director, The Atlantic Council of the United States (confirmed)
Speaker 2:  Ms. Anna Mee Allerslev, Mayor of Employment and Integration of Copenhagen (confirmed)
Speaker 3:  Mr. Sreven Glickman, Cofounder and Executive Director, Economic Innovation Group (confirmed)
Speaker 4:  Mr. Manuel Muñiz], Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations, Harvard University (confirmed)
Led by:  Mr. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council (confirmed)

15:30–15:50

OPENING OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL – LIVE STREAMING

15:50–17:20

SUSTAINING PEACE ON NATO’S EASTERN FLANK

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Since the onset of the crisis in Ukraine, NATO’s eastern flank has emerged as a new flashpoint of political tension with Russia. At the same time, NATO is facing challenges on multiple fronts, from the unravelling of states in the Middle East and North Africa, fuelling a refugee crisis in Europe and prompting Russia’s resurgence in the Middle East, to internal European challenges, including political strife, terrorist threats and diminishing European defence capabilities. NATO must confront all of these challenges in concert and prevent other threats from eclipsing the importance of assurance and deterrence measures on its eastern flank. Doing so will require significant transatlantic resolve, political capital and defence capabilities. The 2016 Warsaw Summit is a critical juncture for NATO’s future and defining the Alliance’s military presence in Central Europe to sustain peace and stability as a strategic imperative.

Speaker 1:   Gen. (Ret.) Knud Bartels, Former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   Mr. Malcolm Chalmers, Deputy Director General, Royal United Services Institute (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Dr. Marie Mendras, Professor at Sciences Po University in Paris (confirmed)
Speaker 4:   Amb. Maris Riekstiņš, Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia (confirmed)
Led by:   Mr. Damon Wilson, Executive Vice President, Atlantic Council (confirmed)
17:20–17:55

PRESERVING PEACE: NATO’S ROLE

Statement:   H.E. Mr. Peter Hultqvist, Minister of Defence of Sweden (confirmed)
Statement:   H.E. Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Vice-President of the European Commission (confirmed)

18:00

DEPARTURE TO THE HOTEL (PLEASE NOTE THE TIME OF DEPARTURE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

VENUE: Hotel Double Tree by hilton
18:30–20:00

BUFFET DINNER

20:30–22:00

NIGHT OWL SESSION 1: ADJUSTING NATO’S NUCLEAR DETERRENCE TO THE NEW REALITY (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)

NATO has significantly reduced the presence of nuclear weapons in Europe over the past two decades. Although the Alliance has continued to rely on nuclear deterrence, the role these weapons play has diminished and it has been adapted to the new security environment. At the same time, Russia has taken a completely different approach. Its nuclear doctrine and use of explicit threats, which it used to facilitate aggression against Ukraine, have led to questions about whether NATO’s nuclear policy and posture is adequate. While NATO has been adjusting to the new nuclear landscape in Europe, the Warsaw Summit provides an opportunity to agree further steps at the highest political levels. What are the main challenges to NATO posed by Russia’s nuclear brinkmanship? What steps should NATO as a “Nuclear Alliance” take to adjust its nuclear policy and posture to new realities? How can it reconcile the deterrence and assurance needs with NATO’s goal to reduce the salience of nuclear weapons in the European security environment, and with the need for maintaining cohesion?

Speaker 1:   Dr. Stèfanie von Hlatky, Director, Queen’s Centre for International and Defence Policy; Assistant Professor, Queen’s University (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   Dr. Camille Grand, Director, Foundation for Strategic Research (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp, President, Federal Academy for Security Policy (confirmed)
Speaker 4:   Dr. Jeffrey Larsen, Director of the Research Division, NATO Defense College (TBC)
Led by:   Dr. Brad Roberts, Director, Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (confirmed)
20:30–22:00

NIGHT OWL SESSION 2: FIGHTING TERROR: REFORMING EUROPE’S INTELLIGENCE INFRASTRUCTURE (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)

The integrity of Europe’s security architecture is at risk. Terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, as well as other ongoing terrorist alerts across the continent, have exposed major loopholes in this architecture. More specifically, they have challenged the ability of European intelligence agencies to effectively collect, analyse and disseminate data on what appears to be a robust and well organised terrorist network operating across Europe. Although terrorism is not new to the old continent, the recent surge in such threats across Europe clearly shows that European countries are in need of adopting a new counterterrorism strategy. Twentieth century means, technology and structures are insufficient when it comes to effectively countering this phenomenon. What tactical and operational improvements must Europe adopt in order to impede another major terrorist attack? How do we improve intelligence collection and sharing in an environment where there is lack of trust and intelligence cultures differ significantly? Do we need to set up a pan-European spy agency to fight terrorism? Or should we build and coordinate European capabilities from bottom-up? What can Europe learn from other counterterrorism models around the world and where is the line between security and privacy in this new age of terror?

Speaker 1:   Mr. Kjetil Anders Hatlebrekke, Associate Professor, The Norwegian Defence Intelligence School; Senior Visiting Research Fellow, Department of War Studies, King’s College (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   H.E. Mr. Michael Chertoff, Chairman and Co-Founder, The Chertoff Group, former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Mr. Jean Baptiste-Carpentier, Head, Strategic Intelligence and Economic Security Unit (TBC)
Speaker 4:   Mr. John Frank, Vice President, European Union Government Affairs, Microsoft (confirmed)
Led by:   Mr. Nik Gowing, International Broadcaster (confirmed)
20:30–22:00

NIGHT OWL SESSION 3: CYBERSECURITY: STILL UNDERESTIMATED? (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)

The gravity of the threat posed by cyberattack was clearly in evidence after the 2014 Wales Summit when NATO recognized that cyberdefence is part of its core task of collective defence. The Alliance has further enhanced protection of its own systems and increased support for the efforts of its members. Since cyberspace has various interdependencies, cooperation with partners has also been strengthened, including with the private sector, nations and international organisations. But as cyberthreats evolve, so must NATO’s approach. What are the main accomplishments and challenges of NATO cyberdefence policy? Should the Alliance do more to support and assist its members? Can deterrence be effective in cyberspace? Does the Alliance need to include cyberoffense measures in its policy? In which areas should NATO collaborate closer with the private sector and other partners, such as the EU?

Introduction:   Prof. Piotr Pogonowski, Head, Internal Security Agency of the Republic of Poland (confirmed)
Speaker 1:   Mr. Hans de Vries, Director, Dutch National Cyber Security Centre (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   Mr. Robert Kosla, CEE Area Director, Microsoft (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Dr. Joanna Świątkowska, Senior Research Fellow, The Kosciuszko Institute; Programme Director, CYBERSEC (confirmed)
Speaker 4:   Mr. Karsten D. Geier, Head, Cyber Policy Coordination Staff, German Federal Foreign Office (confirmed)
Led by:   Mr. Brooks Tigner, EU and NATO Affairs Correspondent, IHS Jane's Defence Weekly; Chief Policy Analyst, Security Europe (confirmed)
20:30–22:00

NIGHT OWL SESSION 4: SPEED UP MODERNISATION: VISEGRAD GROUP CONTRIBUTIONS TO NATO’S CAPABILITIES (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)

The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia are determined to contribute to common security through closer regional cooperation. The most visible example of this determination is the Visegrad Battle Group, which has been on standby in the first half of 2016 and may be used to organise other capabilities in the future. The four countries also cooperate closely in implementing the Readiness Action Plan approved by NATO during the 2014 Wales Summit, but there is untapped potential in defence industrial cooperation and its development could speed up modernisation of the armed forces. Will the changed security environment in Europe move cooperation within the Visegrad Group to a higher level? What capabilities can the V4 countries develop together?

Speaker 1:   H.E. Mr. Attila Demko, Head, Defence Policy Department, Ministry of Defence of Hungary (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   Col. Tomasz Kowalik, Department of Foreign Military Affairs, Ministry of National Defence of the Republic of Poland (TBC)
Speaker 3:   Mr. Jan Havranek, Defence Counselor, Czech Republic Delegation to NATO (confirmed)
Speaker 4:   MR. Dalibor Pavolka, Head, Defence Section, Slovak Republic Delegation to NATO (confirmed)
Speaker 5:   Gen. Knud Bartels, Former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee (confirmed)
Led by:   Mr. Ian Brzezinski, Senior Fellow, International Security Program, The Atlantic Council of the United States (confirmed)
20:30–22:00

NIGHT OWL SESSION 5: ARE WE GIVING UP ON THE INFORMATION FRONT? (VENUE: HOTEL DOUBLE TREE BY HILTON)

Faced with a centralised, well-funded propaganda machine, the West has so far failed to respond effectively to the information war stemming from both Russia and Daesh. Promoting conspiracy theories has been a particularly persuasive weapon to exploit and foster national passivity in the entire region. How should the West and particularly NATO counter this hybrid warfare-type information offensive and attacks on the founding principle of democracy? What steps should the West take not only to resist propaganda and fraudulent news but also to actively restore belief in transatlantic values, freedom and truth?

Speaker 1:   Dr. John Lenczowski, President, The Institute of World Politics (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   Amb. Tacan Ildem, Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy, NATO (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Amb. Rastislav Káčer, Honorary Chairman, GLOBSEC (confirmed)
Speaker 4:   Ms. Jessikka Aro, Investigative Reporter, YLE Kioski, Helsinki (confirmed)
Led by:   Edward Lucas, Senior Vice-President, Centre for European Policy Analysis (confirmed)
Saturday, 9 July 2016
VENUE: NATIONAL STADIUM AREA
9:00–10:30

IS PEACE POSSIBLE? STRATEGY FOR A CHAOTIC SOUTHERN FLANK

IN PARTNERSHIP WITH GMF
The instability of the Middle East and Northern Africa, expansion of Islamic extremism and the ongoing influx of refugees have shaken the stability of Europe and transatlantic security as a whole. NATO’s southern security challenges are particularly complex in form and force. The unconventional threats stemming from the region present a formidable set of problems for Euro-Atlantic policy makers. At the centre of these challenges lies the Syrian conflict, with the resulting spread of instability across the Levant and the Mediterranean. As NATO will deliberate Europe’s Southern neighbourhood in Warsaw, Allies must develop a strategy to identify, manage, and mitigate threats coming from the soft underbelly of Europe. What steps should NATO take to respond to these challenges? What tools should be developed to enhance crisis management and cooperative security capabilities of NATO?

Speaker 1:   H.E. Mr. Børge Brende, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Norway (confirmed
Speaker 2:   The Hon. Ahmet Ünal Çeviköz, President, Ankara Policy Centre (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   H.E. Mr. Paolo Gentiloni, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Italy (invited)
Speaker 4:   Mr. Derek Chollet,, Counsellor and Senior Advisor for Security and Defence Policy, German Marshall Fund of the United States (confirmed)
Speaker 5:   Mr. Felix Arteaga, Elcano Royal Institute for International and Strategic Studies (confirmed)
Led by:   Dr. Karen Donfried, President, German Marshall Fund of the United States (confirmed)
10:30–11:00

COFFE BREAK

11:00–12:30

PRESERVING PEACE BY FOSTERING FREEDOM, JUSTICE AND SECURITY TO THE WIDER WORLD

As a political-military organisation, NATO has tried from the onset to contribute to broader international stability. With collective defence as the bedrock of the Alliance, NATO also possesses significant capacity to spread freedom, justice and security to the wider world. It has developed unique capabilities to undertake crisis-response missions. It offers hundreds of different forms of practical cooperation to partners, broadening the space for cooperative security. Through its open-door policy and the perspective of membership, NATO has proved successful in promoting democratic reforms and stability across Central and Eastern Europe. However, with the new security environment in Europe, NATO will need to readjust its tools for promoting stability, especially in the post-Soviet space. Is it possible to stimulate democratic reforms in Georgia and Ukraine without a viable membership perspective? What is the best support the West can provide both countries?

Speaker 1:   H.E. Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   Amb. Tedo Japaridze, Member of the Parliament of Georgia and Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Amb. John E. Herbst, Director, Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center, The Atlantic Council of the United States (confirmed)
Speaker 4:   Prof. James Sherr, Associate Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House (confirmed)
 Speaker 5
 Mr. Eugene Czolij, Pesident, Ukrainian World Congress (confirmed)
Led by:   Mr. Adam Reichardt, Editor-in-Chief, New Eastern Europe (confirmed)
12:35–12:45

A STRONG AND COHERENT NATO

Speech: H.E. Mr. Antoni Macierewicz, Minister of National Defence of the Republic of Poland (confirmed)

An effective and credible Alliance is especially important for border states that can be directly threatened by the revanchist policy of Russia while facing conventional and asymmetric threats from the South. But the stakes are high for all members. Once NATO’s credibility is undermined, it will cease to exist as the pillar of the transatlantic security architecture, with strategic consequences for the U.S. and Europe alike. That is why NATO needs to overcome the challenges of military, institutional and political adaptation, following the 28-for-28  principle. Only if it does, will it be able to effectively defend all the Allies and deter potential threats.

12:45–13:45 LUNCH
13:45–15:15

PRESERVING PEACE IN EUROPE AND/OR MAKING PEACE WITH RUSSIA?

NATO-Russia relations developed on the assumption that Russia was a NATO partner and that both players wanted to form an area of cooperative security and had common interests in strengthening international stability. Cooperation also served as a  means to enhance predictability and trust. After the annexation of Crimea, NATO suspended cooperation with Russia. What kind of relations between NATO and Russia can best serve the interests of the Alliance given the new security situation? What risks and opportunities would come with pragmatic cooperation in areas where both players do not have conflicting geopolitical interests? Is it viable that the two will join forces in the Middle East to defeat ISIS?

Speaker 1:   Dr. Thomas Gomart, Director, French Institute of International Relations (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   Dr. Andrey Kortunov, Director General, Russian International Affairs Council (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Dr. Przemysław Żurawski vel Grajewski, Political Cabinet, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland (confirmed)
Speaker 4:   Dr. Dmitri Trenin, Director, Moscow Center, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (confirmed)
Speaker 5:   The Hon. Michael Turner, President, NATO Parliamentary Assembly (confirmed)
Led by:   Fred Kempe, President and Chief Executive Officer, The Atlantic Council of the United States (confirmed)
15:15–15:45

COFFE BREAK

15:45–17:15

IS THERE MOMENTUM FOR PEACE IN AFGHANISTAN?

U.S., NATO and the wider international community paid in blood and treasure for more than 15 years to try to bring stability to Afghanistan. The Taliban were removed from power and Al-Qaeda was decimated. But despite significant investment and international support for reform, the foundations of the country remain weak. Afghanistan is threatened by internal power struggles, a Taliban insurgency and the silent expansion of ISIS. While the government struggles to keep its territory under control, the country is dependent on international aid and NATO and its Western allies have pulled the majority of their troops and reduced financial support. With such trends expected to continue, the future of Afghanistan remains bleak. What does this mean for NATO’s Resolute Support? Should the Alliance be ready to take a more active role in Afghanistan again? Is it instead up to Afghans to bring stability through more effective reform and its fight with corruption? Is Afghanistan ready to cope with the challenges alone?

Speaker 1:   Mr. Ahmed Rashid, Journalist; Writer (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   Amb. Maurits Jochems, Former, Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan, NATO (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Ms. Michelle Barsa, Deputy Director, Policy and Conflict Programs, Institute for Inclusive Security (confirmed)
Speaker 4:   Mr. Shuvaloy Majumdar, Former Director of Policy, Office of Canada’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (confirmed)
Led by:   Dr. Nabi Misdaq, Author; Journalist; Former Chief, BBC Pashto Section (confirmed)
17:30–18:45

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? NATO AFTER WARSAW

The security environment has deteriorated considerably and the NATO Warsaw Summit will be a milestone in the adaptation process. NATO needs to rebuild its deterrence and defence capabilities in order to respond to an increasingly antagonistic Russia and the challenges coming from the South. The list of threats is long and includes cyberattacks, an ongoing information war, a lack of public support and underfunding. What will the NATO Summit’s key outcome be? What will Alliance’s forward presence be like? Do we need to rethink NATO’s Strategic Concept (NSC) and Deterrence and Defence Posture Review (DDPR)? Should the Nuclear Strategy be updated?

Speaker 1:   H.E. Mr. Alexander Vershbow, Deputy Secretary General, NATO (confirmed)
Speaker 2:   Dr. Sławomir Dębski, Director, Polish Institute of International Affairs (confirmed)
Speaker 3:   Gen. John Allen (USMC, Ret.), Former U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Global Coalition to Counter ISIL (confirmed)
Led by:   Mr. Steve Clemons, Washington Editor at Large, The Atlantic (confirmed)
18:45–18:55

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Mr. Róbert Vass, President, GLOBSEC
Dr. Sławomir Dębski, Director, Polish Institute of International Affairs

19:00

DEPARTURE FOR THE RECEPTION

VENUE: Hotel double tree by Hilton
19:15–22:00

NATO FAMILY BARBECUE (by invitation only)

22:00–01:00

NATO FAMILY DISCO PARTY (by invitation only)

Portal PISM wykorzystuje pliki cookies. Korzystanie z witryny oznacza zgodę na ich zapis lub wykorzystanie.
Więcej informacji znajdziesz w naszej Polityce Prywatności.
Akceptuję politykę prywatności portalu. zamknij